The Russophobe: The Devil in Russia’s Details

The devil is not only in Russia’s details, he’s got a mansion there – and he’s putting in stables.

In the seemingly unending debate between “Russophiles” (those who think all Russia needs is time) and “Russophobes” (those who think Russia’s time is running out fast), the Russophiles have their toughest slog when it comes to basic issues of biology.

Russia is currently losing at least 500,000 people from its population every year, maybe as many as 1 million (the Kremlin’s ability to provide reliable data is sketchy at best) – and that’s despite record waves of immigration as native Russians return from the far-flung corners of the old USSR.  In short, Russians are dying off at a similar rate to what the country experienced under the cruel reign of dictator Josef Stalin.

At that rate, as soon as the year 2147, Russia could be completely deserted (until the Chinese move in).  Some members of the Russian legislature, in fact, sought to impeach former President Boris Yeltsin on charges of being a mass murderer because he presided over such a population decline; strangely, current President Vladimir Putin has not received as much blame.

What’s responsible for this demographic apocalypse?  Three main factors:  sickness, poverty and a shockingly dangerous street life.

First, Russians are sick.

The average lifespan of a Russian male is less than sixty years, and the average for men and women combined is 14 years shorter than the European average.  Experts predict that by 2020 as much as 10% of the population may be infected with HIV.  300,000 are killed by cigarettes every year.  Over 40,000 are killed by counterfeit alcoholic beverages.  In January, 133 people including 14 children were hospitalized in central Russia after being diagnosed with hemorrhagic fever.

Second, Russians are poor.

The minimum legal wage is $0.25 per hour and the average wage is $2.50 per hour.  30% of the country receives a salary that the government itself admits is not sufficient to sustain life.  Old age pensioners are forced to live on $3 a day or less.  Inflation on the basic basket of goods and services that the average wage earner can afford is shockingly high, 15% or more per year.

Low wages flow from inefficiency and backwardness.  In 2005 Russia’s nominal GDP was exceeded by Mexico even though the latter has one-third fewer people to produce wealth than Russia.  Russia’s GDP growth rate was vastly exceeded by tiny Eastern European nations like Latvia and Lithuania (even though they lack Russia’s massive fossil fuel resources) and it occurs on such a puny base, with such vast population, that it is virtually meaningless to individual Russians.

Low wages are also attributable to misguided government policy.  Russia’s military spending is roaring despite social poverty.  Russia's per capita GDP places it 61rst in the world, close behind Equatorial Guinea, yet it ranks 40th in military spending per capita, tied with Iran, and is spending $20 billion per year on its defense budget, increasing at a breathtaking clip of 20-30% per year. Russia spends over $140 per capita on its military while Equatorial Guinea spends less than $60 per capita

This poverty, of course, leaves Russians without the means to combat their increasing sickness.  A Russian physician can only hope to earn a few hundred dollars per month in most parts of the country, and gets his medical degree just six years after graduating high school.

Third, Russia is incredibly dangerous.

Russia has the world’s fifth-highest murder rate, and Moscow’s murder rate increased by 20% last year. One Russian woman is murdered by her husband every hour.  More journalists are murdered in Russia than any place on the planet except Iraq.  Russia has, not surprisingly, the second most divorces per capita in the world, and the second-highest rate of suicide. 

35,000 people are killed on Russia’s roads every year, ten times more fatalities per vehicle than Germany or Britain.  18,000 are killed by fire each year, twenty times more fatalities by fire per capita than the United States.  In December of 2006, over 40 were killed in a single fire at a state-operated drug treatment center.  Just weeks ago, more than 60 senior citizens perished in a blaze at a government care center; it took nearly half an hour for the center to summon the firemen.

Now for the big question:  Why doesn’t Russia work to solve these problems?  The answer is simple:  The Russian people don’t demand it.  In most other countries, the leader who presided over such a shocking litany of demographic nightmares would be unpopular.  But Russia’s Putin still enjoys 70%+ approval in opinion polls. Undertaking aggressive action to solve problems entails the risk of failure. Why take that risk if you’ll be elected anyway?

And in fact, these demographic issues aren’t necessarily bad for the Kremlin.  With such limited financial means at its disposal, and not yet having consolidated a dictatorship, the Kremlin would be hard-pressed to reign in a healthy, thriving population.  Simply put, a sick and decimated population is much easier to control. If you elect a proud KGB spy like Putin to be your president, the ability to build a successful market economy, show compassion and display statesmanship likely aren’t among your criteria.

In other words, the Russian voters got what they paid for.